Ethiopia has a strong policy and feedstock foundation for SAF but no operating SAF value chain yet. The ICAO/EU ACT-SAF feasibility study (2025) deep-dives five feedstocks (Brassica carinata/HEFA, sugarcane molasses/ATJ, MSW/FT, castor/HEFA, e-SAF/PtL, plus agricultural residues) and finds all are at the resource/planning stage with no commercial conversion, blending, or certification capacity in-country. The study is explicit that Ethiopia lacks refining, blending and certification capability today (all jet fuel is imported finished via Djibouti). Stage strength descends sharply: feedstock potential and a clear off-taker (Ethiopian Airlines) are well-evidenced; conversion is planned (Sunbird Bioenergy + Ethiopian Minerals Corporation biorefinery MoU, target 2030; Satarem MoU); blending and credit/certification are essentially greenfield. Finance is real but mostly adjacent/enabling (DBE, EIH, AfDB, GCF, World Bank, EIB) with only the Sunbird/EMC biorefinery and World Bank exploration being SAF-specific commitments — and even those are early-stage MoUs, not financed projects.1
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Opportunity Feedstock supply chains are fragmented (smallholder-dominated, low oilseed-milling utilization, ethanol capacity <10% utilized) — aggregation is unsolved
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Opportunity No commercial SAF conversion facility exists; the Sunbird/EMC biorefinery is an MoU targeting 2030 with financing still being explored, not committed
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Opportunity No in-country blending or fuel certification capability — study confirms this is a genuine weakness, not just silence
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Opportunity Ethiopian Airlines is a natural/willing off-taker but no domestic SAF uplift or demonstration flight has occurred (only a 2023 imported-SAF A350 delivery flight)
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Opportunity Domestic or engaged CORSIA-approved certification body / auditor for Ethiopian SAF
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